Return of Stat Boy
I finally made good on my promise to visit 82games.com for some decent research. And yes, it just so happened to be right after the Hawks laid the pipe to Isiah's team like Isiah wanted to... well, allegedly anyways, uh, nevermind. At any rate, here's a nice summary of what I found:
The Hawks are an offensive team. I mean that in every possible way. We can beat teams that have a very good defense, just as long as they don't have a good offense. It's rare that teams have both. We have more trouble against balanced teams than anything, mainly because our defense is worse than our offense is good. Tyronn Lue is the perfect example of this- he plays a big factor in games where the Hawks outscore the opponents to win, but his defense is so bad that if the other PG has game then Lue's going to give up a ton. His net value is poor, as he holds the worst Net48 individual value on the team outside of Batista and Donta Smith. His on/off value is the worst of our point guards (-3.1), with Salim almost breaking even (-0.6), and Royal Ivey making his case with a +1.2. This may be slanted in Ivey's favor since he knows he isn't getting the minutes and really hustles when he gets his minutes (although that makes Salim sound bad for not hustling, and perhaps he should).
Josh Smith (Josh 2) is actually part of the best unit on the Hawks, Lue-Johnson-Smith-Harrington-Pachulia, even though his individual stats aren't great. When you sub him out for Childress (Josh 1), the unit as a whole performs worse overall- better on offense, but even more worse on defense. Josh 2 stays in the games where the Hawks get killed, so maybe his individual stats are worse than his actual play. At best though he's just a forward with decent defensive presence, which makes him the best defender on the team.
Joe Johnson is pretty good, but his value to the team isn't extraordinarily high. The difference in the Hawks play when he's out there versus when he's on the bench isn't that great, and it's nothing like any of the other top 30 guys in the league. He's the only Hawks player with a positive PER rating (I'm not sure what that means, but it probably has something to do with possessions), but pretty much every single team has higher rated guys on ther squads. I mean, the Knicks (who we beat last night) are only 2 games better than us, but they have over 5 guys with ON/OFF ratings better than every single Hawks player.
So if we learned anything today, it's that there isn't a single player on this team that makes an impact.
The Hawks are an offensive team. I mean that in every possible way. We can beat teams that have a very good defense, just as long as they don't have a good offense. It's rare that teams have both. We have more trouble against balanced teams than anything, mainly because our defense is worse than our offense is good. Tyronn Lue is the perfect example of this- he plays a big factor in games where the Hawks outscore the opponents to win, but his defense is so bad that if the other PG has game then Lue's going to give up a ton. His net value is poor, as he holds the worst Net48 individual value on the team outside of Batista and Donta Smith. His on/off value is the worst of our point guards (-3.1), with Salim almost breaking even (-0.6), and Royal Ivey making his case with a +1.2. This may be slanted in Ivey's favor since he knows he isn't getting the minutes and really hustles when he gets his minutes (although that makes Salim sound bad for not hustling, and perhaps he should).
Josh Smith (Josh 2) is actually part of the best unit on the Hawks, Lue-Johnson-Smith-Harrington-Pachulia, even though his individual stats aren't great. When you sub him out for Childress (Josh 1), the unit as a whole performs worse overall- better on offense, but even more worse on defense. Josh 2 stays in the games where the Hawks get killed, so maybe his individual stats are worse than his actual play. At best though he's just a forward with decent defensive presence, which makes him the best defender on the team.
Joe Johnson is pretty good, but his value to the team isn't extraordinarily high. The difference in the Hawks play when he's out there versus when he's on the bench isn't that great, and it's nothing like any of the other top 30 guys in the league. He's the only Hawks player with a positive PER rating (I'm not sure what that means, but it probably has something to do with possessions), but pretty much every single team has higher rated guys on ther squads. I mean, the Knicks (who we beat last night) are only 2 games better than us, but they have over 5 guys with ON/OFF ratings better than every single Hawks player.
So if we learned anything today, it's that there isn't a single player on this team that makes an impact.
posted by Matt at 7:10 AM
6 Comments:
Wrong assumption on JJ. You need the right player mix for all of their values to improve...
Steve Nash would have trouble having a higher value on a BK structured team...
Look at Kobe's impact on his team, and look at Chris Paul's impact on his team. Would you say the supporting cast for those two players is that much different from Joe Johnson's? Granted, his numbers have improved since the publishing of the stat I mentioned (1/19), but he doesn't shoot the ball that much better than his replacements and his opponents don't have it much easier on defense when he's out of the game. Joe Johnson was touted as the guy who would start everything, but he's not ready to run the offense. Don't get me wrong, he would flourish with a better supporting cast, but we all thought he would make the team better.
Steve Nash would completely change the identity of this team, by the way. We wouldn't lose much on defense, and his impact on the offense would be ridiculous. I think Joe Johnson's numbers would go through the roof with a great point guard.
Your comments proof that BK is a great pitchman - that's all to it. BK pitched and we all bought it. The team structure is all wrong guy...
Remeber Kobe & Nash are playing their natural positions, JJ isn't (BK experiment with JJ). It's like comparing apples to oranges...
JJ has been playing shooting guard since about week 2. Woodson has given up on trying to make him be a point guard, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.
It effect BK's judgment on bringing in a true PG. It's real hard to bounce from one position to another in one season, and on a new team!!! JJ is so versatile and coachable he has handled it all with a high degree of professionalism. Think about the actions of Steve Francis and others around the league in handling stressful situations...
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